by Morgan Piontek
The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series finale is upon us with a champion set to be crowned in Phoenix this Sunday, November 2nd. With the current playoff format, four drivers will be racing for a championship, while the rest of the field will be racing for their final championship standings, as well as an owners championship. The four drivers contesting for a championship are Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, William Byron and Kyle Larson. Two Joe Gibbs Racing teammates and two Hendrick Motorsports teammates. Let’s dive into each driver and see their championship chances.
Denny Hamlin – #11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Arguably one of the best NASCAR drivers of all time without a championship, Hamlin has had a successful season and most notably a historic one, achieving a career milestone. He earned his 60th career win, tying Kevin Harvick for 10th all-time in the Cup Series. The win took place at Las Vegas Motorspeedway in the first race of the Round of 8, which secured his spot in the Championship 4; his first appearance since 2021. Hamlin has six wins this season with 14 top-five finishes, 17 top-ten finishes and has led 816 laps. His form at Phoenix includes two wins coming in 2012 and 2019, and all he needs to do is finish best of the rest on Sunday. With this being his fourth Championship 4 appearance, can he finally make it happen?
Chase Briscoe – #19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
In his first season driving for JGR, Briscoe has had the best season of his Cup career. He has three wins this season coming from Pocono, Darlington and Talladega (his first ever superspeedway victory). He’s achieved 15 top-fives (Next-Gen car era record), 19 top-tens and has led 881 laps this season. Briscoe won his first ever Cup Series race in 2022 at Phoenix, making him the 200th Cup Series winner. Can he make history again in Phoenix and secure his first ever Cup Series Championship?
William Byron – #24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Byron started the 2025 season on a high note, winning his second consecutive Daytona 500. He has three wins this season coming from Daytona, Iowa and Martinsville. He’s had 11 top-fives, 16 top-tens and has led 1278 laps this season. His dominant victory in Martinsville (final race in the Round of 8) this past weekend secured his spot in the Championship 4 as he led 304 laps (career best for a single race) and swept the stages. Byron clinched the regular season championship in Richmond, so I’m sure he’d like nothing more than to win his first championship in the playoffs as this is his third consecutive appearance in the final round.
Kyle Larson – #5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Larson clinched on points in Martinsville with a fifth place finish, fighting Christopher Bell for the final playoff spot. Although Larson is the only driver with a championship in the final round, he’s on a significant winless drought, going 23 races without a win. He’s managed to stay consistent and present through the season with 3 wins, 14 top-fives, 21 top-tens and has led 1106 laps. He’s managed to get the job done in Phoenix back in 2021 to secure his only championship title thus far and he’ll be hoping to break the drought Sunday.
Hamlin, Byron and Larson have similar average career finishes at Phoenix between 10.6-10.8 while Briscoe is at 18.4. Though it may not be their strongest track like Team Penske’s Joey Logano or Ryan Blaney, all they have to do is finish best of the rest to earn the coveted title. Anything can happen from crashes, to poorly timed cautions and mechanical issues. JGR teammates Hamlin and Briscoe were plagued by engine issues last weekend in Martinsville which is the last thing they want this weekend in Phoenix. It’s difficult to choose a favorite for the win and each team will put all their cards on the table.
If I had to choose one driver to put my money on, it would be Hamlin because he’s had the most time out of the four drivers to prepare for this race. Because he locked himself in during the first race of the Round of 8, he had the luxury of not putting too much pressure on the following races of Talladega and Martinsville. He’s been able to put the time in mentally and emotionally to hopefully earn his first Cup Series Championship and a place among the greats of the sport. Who’s your pick?
